America's car industry No end to the nightmare

America's car industry

No end to the nightmare
Dec 30th 2008
From The Economist print edition

Detroit has been given a brief reprieve, but the threat of bankruptcy still looms
底特律得到暫時解救，但破產的威脅仍在逼近。

THE sense of relief in Detroit that greeted the $17.4 billion federal lifeline thrown by President Bush to General Motors (GM) and Chrysler just before Christmas is unlikely to last long. The terms of the bridging loans amount to a gun at the heads of the two carmakers and their stakeholders. Unless they use the next three months to negotiate a viable way forward, the loans will be called in at the end of March—and bankruptcy will follow.

通用汽車公司和克萊斯勒公司在聖誕節前收到了來自布什政府的174億美元的救濟，但底特律因此感到的解脫感不太可能持續太長時間，銀行臨時借款條約像一把 槍一樣抵著二大汽車製造商和他們的擔保人。除非他們能在接下來的三個月內商定出一個切實可行的方法，否則這些貸款在三月底就會被收回——接下來就是破產。

In effect, the deal announced on December 19th is just one step short of the bankruptcy the carmakers have long insisted is not an option. 「If restructuring cannot be accomplished outside of bankruptcy, the loans will provide time for the companies to make the legal and financial preparations necessary for an orderly Chapter 11 process that offers a better prospect of long-term success,」 Mr Bush said. Dealers, bondholders, suppliers, unions and retirees are all going to have to make sacrifices, and with a speed and purpose that has hitherto been lacking.

實際上，12月19日發表的聲明只是破產前的第一步，汽車製造商長期堅持不是辦法，「如果在破產前不能完成重組，在貸款到期之前，會為公司按第11章進程 作出法律和財務籌備工作準備留好時間，以使其長遠前景變得更好。」布什說。商人，債券持有人，供應商，工會和退休人員都將不得不作出犧牲，到目前為止，這 些還缺乏一定的速度和目的性。

Dealers must face the fact that GM needs to cut their numbers and slim its bloated brand portfolio. In the past, they have used state franchise laws to make any such action prohibitively expensive. Another priority is to convert around 70% of GM』s outstanding debt into equity. Creditors will have to ask themselves whether that is their best option, given that bankruptcy would wipe out the value of their new shares. Suppliers, already hard hit by the collapse in car production, must decide whether to grant easier payment terms that will worsen their own cash positions.

商家必須面對通用汽車公司裁員和削減臃腫品牌資產的事實，在過去，他們曾通過國家特許權法阻止任何代價高昂的行為。另外，可以優先考慮將通用汽車公司 70%的債權轉換為普通股票。債權人會問他們哪一個是最好的選擇。在汽車產業中遭受重創的供應商必須決定是否同意接受會讓他們資金惡化的便捷的付款條件。


But the main focus of attention is bound to be the United Auto Workers union, which is loathed not just by those Senate Republicans whose refusal to vote for a bail-out bill forced Mr Bush to act, but by many ordinary Americans in less well-paid, less secure employment. At the very least, the union will have to advance the package of concessions it negotiated in 2007 to bring wages and benefits into line with those at foreign-owned 「transplant」 factories by the end of 2010. Even that may not be enough, since the terms apply only to new recruits, not existing workers.

但是主要注意的焦點是，美國汽車工人聯盟理應負責任。這個聯盟不僅被拒絕為挽救法案投票迫使布什採取行動的共和黨議員厭惡，同時也被一些低收入，工作沒有保障的美國人厭惡。
至少，聯盟應該推進在2007年談到的一系列的特許，在2010年年底，為在「轉手給外國人的」工廠裡工作的人提供薪金和福利。即使這樣也是不夠的，因為該條款只適用於新聘人員，而不是現有的工人。

Union leaders have signalled a willingness to give ground, but if they give too much they may not be able to win their members』 backing. Many workers feel unfairly picked on, and others may hope for a better deal when there are bigger Democratic majorities in Congress and Barack Obama is in the White House. That could prove a fatal miscalculation. The incoming administration was almost certainly consulted about Mr Bush』s rescue, and Mr Obama has already made it clear that he will not be a soft touch for Detroit.

工會領導人發出了願意讓步的信號，但如果他們退讓太多了，可能不會贏得會員們的支持，許多工人認為選擇是不公平的，另一些人希望當民主黨在國會佔大多數席 位和奧巴馬入主白宮後，會有一個更好的解決方案。這樣的想法是個致命的錯誤，下一任統治者肯定會向布什咨詢救援方案。奧巴馬也表示他不會對底特律手軟的。

Even if a new deal for the carmakers is put on the table in March, they may not like it any better. Many Democrats are determined to show their green credentials by forcing Detroit to build more hybrid and electric vehicles as a condition for federal aid—whether or not there is a market for them. Toyota』s decision in December to postpone indefinitely production of its Prius hybrid at a new factory in Mississippi ought to be a reality check for politicians who want to tell carmakers what they should build, but will probably not be.

儘管針對汽車製造商的新措施將會在三月份出台，可能也不會有好轉。許多民主黨人決定將綠色資格證明作為聯邦政府援助的一個條件，向底特律施壓，強迫他們制 造更多的混合動力車和電動汽車——不管這些車是否有市場。豐田公司在12月決定無限期推遲他們在密西西比州一個新工廠生產的普銳斯混合動力車，讓那些指導 汽車生產商應該製造什麼的政治家來核查，但這可能不會實行。

The biggest reason why Detroit』s anguish is far from over is that there is no sign of any easing of the conditions that precipitated the crisis. PricewaterhouseCoopers, a consulting firm, predicts that light-vehicle sales in North America for 2009 will fall a further 17% to 10.8m. And on December 22nd Toyota said it expected to make a $1.7 billion operating loss for the financial year, its first since it began reporting earnings in 1941. Japan』s second-biggest carmaker, Honda, also expects to dip into the red. If even those paragons of efficiency are feeling the pain, what chance is there that Detroit can turn itself around by March?

底特律的痛苦還遠遠沒有結束最大的原因是，沒有任何跡象表明危機得到緩解，普華永道會計師事務所是家咨詢公司，它預計北美地區2009年的輕型車的銷售會 進一步減少17%，削減至10.8萬輛。12月22日，豐田公司稱預計今年將有17億美元的營業虧損，這是它自1941年來的首次虧損。日本的第二大汽車 製造商本田公司也表示預計會有財政赤字。 如果連這些生產模範都感到痛楚，底特律在三月底會有什麼轉機？

On December 29th the government said it would provide $6 billion to stabilise GMAC, a finance company part-owned by GM that is turning itself into a bank. Realistically, the most GM can hope for is that it will have done enough by March to keep the drip-feed going until the second half of 2009, when things may start to improve. As for Chrysler—don』t even ask.

12月29日，政府表示會撥款60億美元以穩定汽車金融服務公司，汽車金融服務公司是通用汽車公司下面的一個金融公司，即將改組為銀行控股公司。實際上，通用則希望貸款能在三月份就啟動並一直持續到2009年下半年，等形勢有了好轉再說。——至於克萊斯勒，問都不要問。